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MSFT

MICROSOFT CORP

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).

The house read — AI committeei

Constructive. MSFT (MICROSOFT CORP) is held by 115 peer funds ($12.3B disclosed exposure), first entering the sphere on 2026-03-31.

Committee last reviewed this name Sep 9, 2026 — 7 days ago; it is in the nightly refresh queue · 2 seats shown

Market cap$3.65T

Revenue · 12 mo$331.8B

Revenue growth+17.8%

Gross margin67.9%

Operating margin45.1%

Net margin40.3%

Operating cash · 12 mo$182.9B

Buybacks · 12 mo$22.3B

Shares out7.45B

Share count YoY-0.2%

LAST CLOSE$496.95-1.7% today

+0.6% this week-3.6% over 12 months52-wk $352.83–$542.07

The expectation — AI committeei

FIG 1 — the past year, then where our committee thinks it can go over a monthfan drawn from the committee's 2026-09-09 review at $491.65 · price return, dividends excluded · hover the history to probe

The middle path puts the price at $496.57 (+1.0%) a month from the review; the shaded cone is the range the committee considers likely — from $447.40 (−9.0%, 1 chance in 20 of ending lower) to $550.65 (+12.0%, 1 chance in 20 of ending higher). A considered estimate, not a guarantee.

Our committee of 2 independent AI analysts, each publishing under a house pen name; a chair synthesizes their disagreement.RESEARCH, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

CatalystsOct 28, 2026 · quarterly earnings in 42 daysquarterly fund disclosures (13F) ~45 days after each quarter

On this pageThe story Smart money The committee Market vs us Fundamentals Positioning FilingsTrading opportunities~90-second scan · expands add the depth

The story

MSFT (MICROSOFT CORP) is held by 115 peer funds ($12.3B disclosed exposure), first entering the sphere on 2026-03-31. The sphere is accumulating: 32 opens/adds against 19 exits/trims over the last 90 days. Latest SEC 13F reports show 25 registry hedge funds in our tracked set hold it, led by AQR's reported long position at $4.3B (1.5% of its reported 13F book). 9 managers report a put position. Fundamentally: revenue +18% YoY (TTM), 40% TTM net margin; 2026-Q1 operating margin was 48.9% versus 35.7% GAAP net margin because non-operating and tax items materially affected the quarter. Next earnings estimated 2026-10-28; technically it is in an uptrend, 9% off the 52-week high (basing). Options flow on 2026-09-09 flagged: net premium bearish.

Recent coverage mentioning MSFT

New Microsoft Defender 'ShieldCrash' zero-day grants SYSTEM access - BleepingComputer

BleepingComputer · Sep 9, 2026

A Teachers Union and Microsoft Just Made An AI Safety Deal. But Compliance Remains an Open Question. - Mother Jones

Mother Jones · Sep 9, 2026

"It's a new day at Blizzard": Union wins historic contract protecting 1,900 World of Warcraft, Diablo, Overwatch, and more workers as Microsoft plans another 1,600 layoffs

Yahoo · Sep 9, 2026

What It Means for MSFT Stock Investors as Microsoft Switches to 2 Business Segments - Yahoo Finance

Yahoo Finance · Sep 9, 2026

Microsoft’s Project Zenith puts large AI models directly on developer PCs - Help Net Security

Help Net Security · Sep 8, 2026

What the smart money is doing

102 of the professional funds we track closest hold this name — up from 0 six months ago, with $12.3B of disclosed exposure. The largest position: TRUT at 11.4% of its book.

Over the last 7 days of disclosures: 5 funds bought and 0 sold (through Sep 9, 2026).

First entered our tracked sphere Mar 31, 2026. One honest caveat: holdings data is quarterly and arrives with a lag — it shows where conviction was, not where the price goes next.

0

6 mo ago

70

3 mo ago

102

now

FIG 2 — funds in our tracked sphere holding this namefund disclosures are quarterly and lagged

The committee — independent lenses on one stockreviewed Sep 9, 2026

Each pen name is a stable house byline for one real committee seat — the same seat, every report, so its record is real and continuous. The names honor thinkers whose spirit fits each seat's voice; the analysis is our models', not a re-enactment of theirs.

Sima Qian — the chair

synthesis of the disagreement

Synthesis pending the next review.

RESEARCH, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Where the seats land — next month

−10.5%0+9.0%

J. Schumpeter+1.0%

F. Yukichi−1.0%

FIG 3 — each seat's expected month; the dot is its middle path

Fukuzawa Yukichi

Modernization

Joseph Schumpeter

Innovation

What the market expects — vs what we expect

MARKET-IMPLIEDCOMMITTEE AIupdated 2026-09-09 · hover to probe

FIG 4 — expected one-month price return: the option market vs our committeearea under each curve = probability · hover a p05/p50/p95 marker for plain English

Two curves, one honest disagreement

Option prices let us read what the market as a whole is bracing for over the next month: roughly −12.7% to +13.2%.

Our committee's range is −9.0% to +12.0%, middle +1.0%. Where the curves differ is exactly where our research disagrees with the crowd — hover the chart to read the chance of ending below any level, under each view.

The fundamentals, in English

Sales last quarter: $90.0B

Up 18% from the same quarter a year earlier.

Profitability

67¢ of each sales dollar survives direct costs; 45¢ reaches operating profit.

vs the street: beat the average estimate 3 of the last 3 reported quarters

Analysts expect $4.72 per share next quarter.

Cash generation: $182.9B of operating cash in 12 months

$22.3B of it went to buying back shares.

The numbers — 8 quarters, side by side

Quarter	Revenue	vs yr ago	Gross	Operating	EPS	Op. cash
2026-Q4	$90.0B	+18%	67.2%	45.1%	—	$55.4B
2026-Q3	$82.9B	+18%	67.6%	46.3%	$4.27	$46.7B
2026-Q2	$81.3B	+17%	68.0%	47.1%	$5.16	$35.8B
2026-Q1	$77.7B	+18%	69.0%	48.9%	$3.72	$45.1B
2025-Q4	$76.4B	+18%	68.6%	44.9%	—	$42.6B
2025-Q3	$70.1B	+13%	68.7%	45.7%	$3.46	$37.0B
2025-Q2	$69.6B	+12%	68.7%	45.5%	$3.23	$22.3B
2025-Q1	$65.6B	+16%	69.4%	46.6%	$3.30	$34.2B

A missing value renders an honest “—”, never zero. Per-share figures are as the company filed them at the time (not adjusted for later stock splits). Source: the company's own SEC filings.

Street record: 2026-03: beat +5.2% · 2025-12: beat +34.1% · 2025-09: beat +1.6%

Positioning & protection, in English

The price of protection — vs its own past year

today · 27th percentile

cheaper than usual

more expensive than usual

Paying for a bet on a rise

$112M · 72%

Paying to protect against a fall

$44M · 28%

FIG 5 — option-market positioning · Sep 9, 2026

In options terms: 30-day implied vol 26% (rank 27/100 for the year), in line with the recent-vol benchmark of 25%. Options flow on 2026-09-09: $112M in calls vs $44M in puts at 0.4x normal volume.

How positioning like this is typically read: Buyer-initiated downside flow is present and implied volatility is near the recent-vol benchmark. The individual trades show where that positioning is concentrated.

Earnings land in 49 days — option prices around scheduled events usually rise into the date and reset after; that is normal, not a prediction.

Public filings activity

Public officials must disclose their trades — with a lag of up to 45 days. Recent disclosures naming MSFT:

Aug 26, 2026U.S. House member — David Taylor · Sell, $1,001 - $15,000filed 12 days after the trade

Aug 11, 2026U.S. House member — David Taylor · Sell, $15,001 - $50,000filed 10 days after the trade

Jul 30, 2026U.S. House member — Rich McCormick · Sell, $1,001 - $15,000filed 18 days after the trade

Jul 24, 2026U.S. House member — David Taylor · Buy, $1,001 - $15,000filed 14 days after the trade

Jul 21, 2026U.S. Senate member — Shelley Capito · Sell, $15,001 - $50,000filed 14 days after the trade

Jul 17, 2026U.S. House member — Gilbert Cisneros · Buy, $15,001 - $50,000filed 49 days after the trade

Jun 25, 2026U.S. House member — Michael Rulli · Sell, $1,001 - $15,000filed 46 days after the trade

Jun 17, 2026U.S. House member — Jared Moskowitz · Buy, $1,001 - $15,000filed 39 days after the trade

Why we show this. These are public records anyone can read — we collect them in one place and date both the trade and the filing, so you can see the lag for yourself. Source: public congressional records.

Trading opportunities — the alpha sectionRESEARCH, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Our engine turns the committee's expected range into concrete trade structures — each with a one-sentence thesis, the structure spelled out in plain English, and a picture of what you'd make or lose across possible prices.

No idea stands for MSFT right now. Trade ideas are regenerated after every committee review and pass strict pricing gates — most names on most days honestly have none. Fresh ideas appear here after the next nightly review.

Research, not investment advice.All returns shown are price returns — dividends excluded.AI-derived content is always violet-labeled.Report data as of Sep 9, 2026.