MSFT (Microsoft Corp) is held by 118 peer ETFs ($15.4B disclosed exposure), first entering the sphere on 2026-03-31. The sphere is accumulating: 40 opens/adds against 15 exits/trims over the last 90 days. The latest SEC 13F quarter ended 2026-06-30 shows 25 registry hedge funds in our tracked set hold it, led by AQR's reported long position at $4.3B (1.5% of its reported 13F book). Quarter over quarter (2026-06-30): 3 exits; 9 managers report a put position. Fundamentally: revenue +18% YoY (TTM), 41% TTM net margin, P/E 28; 2027-Q1 operating margin was 49.8% versus 39.7% GAAP net margin because non-operating and tax items materially affected the quarter. Next earnings estimated 2027-01-27; technically it is in an uptrend, 2% off the 52-week high (basing).
MSFT
Microsoft develops and licenses consumer and enterprise software. It is known for its Windows operating systems and Office productivity suite. The company is organized into three equally sized broad segments: productivity and business processes (legacy Microsoft Office, cloud-based Office 365, Exchange, SharePoint, Skype, LinkedIn, Dynamics), intelligence cloud (infrastructure- and platform-as-a-service offerings Azure, Windows Server OS, SQL Server), and more personal computing (Windows Client, Xbox, Bing search, display advertising, and Surface laptops, tablets, and desktops).
The middle path puts the price at $541.32 (+1.7%) a month from the review; the shaded cone is the range the committee considers likely — from $481.70 (−9.5%, 1 chance in 20 of ending lower) to $604.13 (+13.5%, 1 chance in 20 of ending higher). A considered estimate, not a guarantee.
118 of the professional funds we track hold this name, with $15.4B of disclosed exposure; 101 hold at least 0.1% of their fund. The largest position: TRUT at 11.9% of its book.
Over the last 7 days of disclosures: 4 funds bought and 2 sold (through Oct 28, 2026).
First entered our tracked sphere Mar 31, 2026. One honest caveat: holdings data is quarterly and arrives with a lag — it shows where conviction was, not where the price goes next.
Each pen name is a stable house byline for one real committee seat — the same seat, every report, so its record is real and continuous. The names honor thinkers whose spirit fits each seat's voice; the analysis is our models', not a re-enactment of theirs.
No written synthesis for this review; the seats' ranges above show the disagreement.
Two curves, one honest disagreement
Option prices let us read what the market as a whole is bracing for over the next month: roughly −15.9% to +15.4%.
Our committee's range is −9.5% to +13.5%, middle +1.7%. Where the curves differ is exactly where our research disagrees with the crowd — hover the chart to read the chance of ending below any level, under each view.
The numbers — 8 quarters, side by side
| Quarter | Revenue | vs yr ago | Gross | Operating | EPS | Op. cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027-Q1 | $92.3B | +19% | 67.8% | 49.8% | $4.92 | $58.0B |
| 2026-Q4 | $90.0B | +18% | 67.2% | 45.1% | — | $55.4B |
| 2026-Q3 | $82.9B | +18% | 67.6% | 46.3% | $4.27 | $46.7B |
| 2026-Q2 | $81.3B | +17% | 68.0% | 47.1% | $5.16 | $35.8B |
| 2026-Q1 | $77.7B | +18% | 69.0% | 48.9% | $3.72 | $45.1B |
| 2025-Q4 | $76.4B | +18% | 68.6% | 44.9% | — | $42.6B |
| 2025-Q3 | $70.1B | +13% | 68.7% | 45.7% | $3.46 | $37.0B |
| 2025-Q2 | $69.6B | +12% | 68.7% | 45.5% | $3.23 | $22.3B |
In options terms: 30-day implied vol 32% (rank 48/100 for the year), 10 pts above the recent-vol benchmark of 22%. Options flow on 2026-10-28: $308M in calls vs $150M in puts at 0.9x normal volume.
How positioning like this is typically read: Options flow is unremarkable today and implied vol is rich vs the recent-vol benchmark (IV rank 48/100 for the year). Nothing here demands action — the other report sections carry the story.
Earnings land in 87 days — option prices around scheduled events usually rise into the date and reset after; that is normal, not a prediction.
Public officials must disclose their trades — with a lag of up to 45 days. Recent disclosures naming MSFT:
Why we show this. These are public records anyone can read — we collect them in one place and date both the trade and the filing, so you can see the lag for yourself. Source: public congressional records.
Our engine turns the committee's expected range into concrete trade structures — each with a one-sentence thesis, the structure spelled out in plain English, and a picture of what you'd make or lose across possible prices.
No idea stands for MSFT right now. Trade ideas are regenerated after every committee review and pass strict pricing gates — most names on most days honestly have none. Fresh ideas appear here after the next nightly review.