Every ticker's next move, mapped as a probability distribution.
Filings, full-text news, prices, options, fund portfolios, and ownership become one timestamped research packet. Seven independent committee seats read it; five complete reports go to two judges. You see the resulting range, evidence, and disagreement—and the record is graded against what happens.
↳ Start with a live report. Read the range, evidence, and disagreement—not just a target.
Every payoff is integrated across a bounded probability distribution: expected reward minus expected loss, including the entry cost. The board prioritizes expected net reward per charged capital; the curve disagreement remains supporting evidence.
↳ The board refreshes with completed tickers and new market evidence.
When our curve and the market's disagree, the desk prices the expression and integrates its full payoff: instrument, strike, expiry, expected reward, expected loss, and net reward after entry. Defined risk, defined horizon.
↳ From disagreement to a ticket your broker understands — one click.
Give the desk your portfolios, goals, and constraints — position caps, income needs, no-go lists, tax awareness. Every opportunity and every ticket is ranked against them, not a generic feed. As many books as you run.
↳ Set constraints once; every board and ticket re-ranks around them.
YOUR BOOKS · 3 PORTFOLIOS (SAMPLE)constraints applied to today's board
SMCIFits — fills your semiconductor underweight, lands under the 5% cap+8.6% · 1m
DEFits — long-horizon hold, dividend supports the income sleeve+4.8% · 3m
COINExcluded — breaches this book's "no crypto exposure" ruleFILTERED
Research, not investment advice.re-ranked as new evidence arrives
SESSION LEDGER · ATTRIBUTED MOVES (SAMPLE)LIVE · ATTRIBUTINGΔ WHAT CHANGED
09:47:12NVDA+2.4%Hyperscaler capex guide raised — read from the 8-K (SEC current report), attributed in 41 sFILING
11:03:55LLY−3.1%Drug-pricing draft — options flow hit 30 minutes before the headlineOPTIONS FLOW
13:22:08SMCI+5.8%Three funds added, one initiated at 2.1% of book — 13F (quarterly holdings filing) parse13F
14:36:40COIN−2.2%Put sweep at 3.1× the 20-day average premium, strikes 8% below spotOPTIONS
15:11:02DE+1.9%Order-backlog language changed in the 10-Q (quarterly report) risk sectionFILING
MOVES05 · WHY IT MOVED
Why it moved, answered in seconds.
Wonder why a stock just gapped? Never wonder again. The trigger lands here in seconds, traced to its direct source — the filing line, the headline, the options sweep, the fund that bought, the tape that repriced first.
↳ When a holding gaps, the ledger already says why.
COMM06 · THE COMMITTEE
Seven reads, two judges, dissent preserved.
Seven independent model seats receive the same reference-blind dossier in parallel. The first five complete, valid, distinct forecasts go to two independent judges. The first valid judgment publishes with the five underlying reports and their dissent.
↳ Read the judgment first; open any of the five source reports.
Options flow leans call-side at 2.1× the 20-day average premium.
Judge: the distribution shifts right; the left tail stays fat on customer concentration.
DISSENT · SKEPTIC
"Top-four customers are 46% of data-center revenue. The room under-prices concentration; my 5th percentile sits well below the committee's."
Judge synthesis and dissents are model output — violet-framed, never mixed into factual data. Graded later in REC.
NVDA · PRICE, THEN PROBABILITYrefreshed from timestamped source packets
NEXT07 · BEYOND THE CHART
Your chart ends at today. Ours begins there.
A price chart is a rear-view mirror — it stops at now. We publish the road ahead: probability bands for the next week, month, and quarter, refreshed every session for every covered name.
↳ History is the input. The distribution is the output.
SIGNAL08 · SIGNAL, NOT NOISE
No pundits. No pattern magic. Sources and math.
Not TV takes, not trend lines fitted backward onto noise. Primary sources read multiple ways — filings, flow, transcripts, prices — run through rigorous probabilistic frameworks into real-time distributions and ranked alpha.
↳ Every claim traces to a source; every number to a method.
THE SIGNAL DIET
OUT
TV hot takes
Patterns fitted backward onto noise
Indicator soup
Anonymous rumor
IN
Primary filings, read in full
The options surface, repriced live
Independent models, argued in committee
Distributions, graded in public
SPHERE · SESSION PULSE (SAMPLE)LIVEbuzz = mentions vs 7-day avg
GAINING NOTICE ▲
ACHR+3 ETF adds · call flow 2.6×4.1×
ETFXOPTIONS
SMCI2 funds initiated · quarterly 13F parse3.4×
13FX
DEbacklog headlines · news volume 3.2×2.9×
NEWSFILING
LOSING FAVOR ▼
PLTR2 ETFs trimmed · X sentiment fading0.4×
ETFX
COINput sweeps 3.1× · 1 fund exited0.5×
OPTIONS13F
LLYpricing-draft risk · negative wires0.6×
NEWSOPTIONS FLOW
Sources: ETF holdings deltas, 13F parses, the curated X list, wire volume, options flow. Every row clicks through to its evidence.
SPHERE09 · THE MARKET PULSE
Never miss a trending stock.
See what's buzzing in the smart-money sphere: 233 ETFs, 52 hedge-fund books, the influential X sphere, news, global events — one pulse. The names the movers are noticing, and the names quietly losing favor.
↳ Rising and fading names sort themselves, all session long.
REC10 · THE RECORD
Every forecast, graded in public.
Realized returns scored against published curves. Coverage, calibration, sharpness. No forecast is deleted; no grade is retroactive.
↳ Check the record before you weight the read.
34,000+
FORECASTS GRADED
94.5%
IN-BAND · TARGET 90%
14
FORECAST TRACKS GRADED
one month agoNVDA one-month curve → realized +6.8%, landed p62p62HIT
last quarterLLY three-month curve → realized −11.2%, landed p03 — left tail was too thinp03MISS
last weekSMCI one-week curve → realized +4.1%, landed p71p71HIT
Illustrative rows — the live record grades every published curve. Misses stay on the page; model changes that follow them are dated in the changelog.
AI × real-time data · Investing from first principles
Research, not investment advice. The desk is invite-only while in beta.
Ariam Global Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and sub-adviser to the ARIA Opportunities ETF (NYSE Arca: ARIA). Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Nothing here is an offer or a recommendation.