Every ticker's next move, mapped as a probability distribution.
5,300+ fund portfolios. 13,000+ held names. 52 hedge-fund 13F books. Filings, options, trades, and full-text news processed nightly. Across the deep run, 4.7M dossier words are read independently by nine AI analysts, then judged. Published as probability curves. Graded against what happens.
↳ Type a ticker. Read its next month as a curve, not a target.
Every payoff is integrated across a bounded probability distribution: expected reward minus expected loss, including the entry cost. The board prioritizes expected net reward per charged capital; the curve disagreement remains supporting evidence.
↳ The board lands pre-open; expected net reward is the sort key.
When our curve and the market's disagree, the desk prices the expression and integrates its full payoff: instrument, strike, expiry, expected reward, expected loss, and net reward after entry. Defined risk, defined horizon.
↳ From disagreement to a ticket your broker understands — one click.
Give the desk your portfolios, goals, and constraints — position caps, income needs, no-go lists, tax awareness. Every opportunity and every ticket is ranked against them, not a generic feed. As many books as you run.
↳ Set constraints once; every board and ticket re-ranks around them.
YOUR BOOKS · 3 PORTFOLIOS (SAMPLE)constraints applied to today's board
SMCIFits — fills your semiconductor underweight, lands under the 5% cap+8.6% · 1m
DEFits — long-horizon hold, dividend supports the income sleeve+4.8% · 3m
COINExcluded — breaches this book's "no crypto exposure" ruleFILTERED
Research, not investment advice.re-ranked pre-open, every session
SESSION LEDGER · ATTRIBUTED MOVES (SAMPLE)LIVE · ATTRIBUTINGΔ WHAT CHANGED
09:47:12NVDA+2.4%Hyperscaler capex guide raised — read from the 8-K (SEC current report), attributed in 41 sFILING
11:03:55LLY−3.1%Drug-pricing draft — options flow hit 30 minutes before the headlineOPTIONS FLOW
13:22:08SMCI+5.8%Three funds added, one initiated at 2.1% of book — 13F (quarterly holdings filing) parse13F
14:36:40COIN−2.2%Put sweep at 3.1× the 20-day average premium, strikes 8% below spotOPTIONS
15:11:02DE+1.9%Order-backlog language changed in the 10-Q (quarterly report) risk sectionFILING
MOVES05 · WHY IT MOVED
Why it moved, answered in seconds.
Wonder why a stock just gapped? Never wonder again. The trigger lands here in seconds, traced to its direct source — the filing line, the headline, the options sweep, the fund that bought, the tape that repriced first.
↳ When a holding gaps, the ledger already says why.
COMM06 · THE COMMITTEE
Nine analysts, one judge, dissent preserved.
Nine custom-built, fine-tuned AI analysts on duty 24/7 — reading filings, flow, news, positioning, and prices; arguing every name that matters; pricing events as probability distributions. A judge writes the fairest synthesis, and the dissent publishes with it.
↳ Read the judge in 90 seconds; open any dissent in one click.
Options flow leans call-side at 2.1× the 20-day average premium.
Judge: the distribution shifts right; the left tail stays fat on customer concentration.
DISSENT · SKEPTIC
"Top-four customers are 46% of data-center revenue. The room under-prices concentration; my 5th percentile sits well below the committee's."
Judge synthesis and dissents are model output — violet-framed, never mixed into factual data. Graded later in REC.
NVDA · PRICE, THEN PROBABILITYrefreshed pre-open, every session
NEXT07 · BEYOND THE CHART
Your chart ends at today. Ours begins there.
A price chart is a rear-view mirror — it stops at now. We publish the road ahead: probability bands for the next week, month, and quarter, refreshed every session for every covered name.
↳ History is the input. The distribution is the output.
SIGNAL08 · SIGNAL, NOT NOISE
No pundits. No pattern magic. Sources and math.
Not TV takes, not trend lines fitted backward onto noise. Primary sources read multiple ways — filings, flow, transcripts, prices — run through rigorous probabilistic frameworks into real-time distributions and ranked alpha.
↳ Every claim traces to a source; every number to a method.
THE SIGNAL DIET
OUT
TV hot takes
Patterns fitted backward onto noise
Indicator soup
Anonymous rumor
IN
Primary filings, read in full
The options surface, repriced live
Fine-tuned models, argued in committee
Distributions, graded in public
SPHERE · SESSION PULSE (SAMPLE)LIVEbuzz = mentions vs 7-day avg
GAINING NOTICE ▲
ACHR+3 ETF adds · call flow 2.6×4.1×
ETFXOPTIONS
SMCI2 funds initiated · quarterly 13F parse3.4×
13FX
DEbacklog headlines · news volume 3.2×2.9×
NEWSFILING
LOSING FAVOR ▼
PLTR2 ETFs trimmed · X sentiment fading0.4×
ETFX
COINput sweeps 3.1× · 1 fund exited0.5×
OPTIONS13F
LLYpricing-draft risk · negative wires0.6×
NEWSOPTIONS FLOW
Sources: ETF holdings deltas, 13F parses, the curated X list, wire volume, options flow. Every row clicks through to its evidence.
SPHERE09 · THE MARKET PULSE
Never miss a trending stock.
See what's buzzing in the smart-money sphere: 233 ETFs, 52 hedge-fund books, the influential X sphere, news, global events — one pulse. The names the movers are noticing, and the names quietly losing favor.
↳ Rising and fading names sort themselves, all session long.
REC10 · THE RECORD
Every forecast, graded in public.
Realized returns scored against published curves. Coverage, calibration, sharpness. No forecast is deleted; no grade is retroactive.
↳ Check the record before you weight the read.
34,000+
FORECASTS GRADED
94.5%
IN-BAND · TARGET 90%
14
FORECAST TRACKS GRADED
one month agoNVDA one-month curve → realized +6.8%, landed p62p62HIT
last quarterLLY three-month curve → realized −11.2%, landed p03 — left tail was too thinp03MISS
last weekSMCI one-week curve → realized +4.1%, landed p71p71HIT
Illustrative rows — the live record grades every published curve. Misses stay on the page; model changes that follow them are dated in the changelog.
AI × real-time data · Investing from first principles
Research, not investment advice. The desk is invite-only while in beta.
Ariam Global Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Nothing here is an offer or a recommendation.