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NVDA

NVIDIA Corp

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

Nvidia is a leading developer of graphics processing units. Traditionally, GPUs were used to enhance the experience on computing platforms, most notably in gaming applications on PCs. GPU use cases have since emerged as important semiconductors used in artificial intelligence to run large language models. Nvidia not only offers AI GPUs, but also a software platform, Cuda, used for AI model development and training. Nvidia is also expanding its data center networking solutions, helping to tie GPUs together to handle complex workloads.

The house read — AI committeei

Neutral. NVDA (NVIDIA Corp) is held by 145 peer ETFs ($22.8B disclosed exposure), first entering the sphere on 2026-01-02.

Committee last reviewed this name Oct 28, 2026 — 4 days ago · 3 seats shown

Market cap$5.19T

P/E · trailing27.2×

EPS · 12 mo$7.91

Revenue · 12 mo$303.0B

Revenue growth+83.4%

Gross margin74.7%

Operating margin66.2%

Net margin63.7%

Operating cash · 12 mo$134.4B

Buybacks · 12 mo$55.3B

Shares out24.10B

LAST CLOSE$204.64-4.2% today

-3.0% this week+0.9% over 12 months52-wk $165.17–$239.24

The expectation — AI committeei

FIG 1 — the past year, then where our committee thinks it can go over a monthfan drawn from the committee's 2026-10-28 review at $215.40 · price return, dividends excluded · hover the history to probe

The middle path puts the price at $218.42 (+1.4%) a month from the review; the shaded cone is the range the committee considers likely — from $179.21 (−16.8%, 1 chance in 20 of ending lower) to $259.56 (+20.5%, 1 chance in 20 of ending higher). A considered estimate, not a guarantee.

Our committee of 3 independent AI analysts, each publishing under a house pen name; a chair synthesizes their disagreement.RESEARCH, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

CatalystsNov 25, 2026 · quarterly earnings in 24 daysquarterly fund disclosures (13F) ~45 days after each quarter

On this pageThe story Smart money The committee Market vs us Fundamentals Positioning FilingsTrading opportunities~90-second scan · expands add the depth

The story

NVDA (NVIDIA Corp) is held by 145 peer ETFs ($22.8B disclosed exposure), first entering the sphere on 2026-01-02. The sphere is accumulating: 21 opens/adds against 19 exits/trims over the last 90 days. Latest SEC 13F reports show 26 registry hedge funds in our tracked set hold it, led by AQR's reported long position at $7.5B (2.6% of its reported 13F book). 11 managers report a put position. Fundamentally: revenue +83% YoY (TTM), 64% TTM net margin, P/E 27. Next earnings estimated 2026-11-25; technically it is trading sideways, 10% off the 52-week high (pullback).

Recent coverage mentioning NVDA

NVIDIA and Meta to Expand Collaboration on Muse and Muse Family of Models Amid Robust Growth

Investor relations · Oct 27, 2026

NVIDIA and Oracle Expand NVIDIA Vera Rubin to Multi-Gigawatt Scale and Bring NVIDIA Vera CPU to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure

Investor relations · Oct 27, 2026

NVIDIA and Supply Chain Partners Expand Capacity to Accelerate AI Infrastructure Buildout

Investor relations · Oct 21, 2026

European Ecosystem Builds World’s Most Efficient AI Factories With NVIDIA DSX

Investor relations · Oct 21, 2026

Experience Minecraft With Path Tracing and DLSS - RTX Remix 1.6 Available Now For GeForce and RTX Spark

Investor relations · Oct 28, 2026

What the smart money is doing

145 of the professional funds we track hold this name, with $22.8B of disclosed exposure; 122 hold at least 0.1% of their fund. The largest position: FDG at 19.0% of its book.

Over the last 7 days of disclosures: 1 funds bought and 3 sold (through Oct 28, 2026).

First entered our tracked sphere Jan 2, 2026. One honest caveat: holdings data is quarterly and arrives with a lag — it shows where conviction was, not where the price goes next.

121

3 mo ago

122

now

FIG 2 — funds in our tracked sphere holding this namefund disclosures are quarterly and lagged

The committee — independent lenses on one stockreviewed Oct 28, 2026

Each pen name is a stable house byline for one real committee seat — the same seat, every report, so its record is real and continuous. The names honor thinkers whose spirit fits each seat's voice; the analysis is our models', not a re-enactment of theirs.

Sima Qian — the chair

synthesis of the disagreement

No written synthesis for this review; the seats' ranges above show the disagreement.

RESEARCH, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Where the seats land — next month

−18.5%0+20.5%

F. Yukichi+1.8%

A. Smith+1.0%

Ibn Khaldun−1.0%

FIG 3 — each seat's expected month; the dot is its middle path

Adam Smith

Markets

Fukuzawa Yukichi

Modernization

Ibn Khaldun

Cycles

What the market expects — vs what we expect

MARKET-IMPLIEDCOMMITTEE AIupdated 2026-10-28 · hover to probe

FIG 4 — expected one-month price return: the option market vs our committeearea under each curve = probability · hover a p05/p50/p95 marker for plain English

Two curves, one honest disagreement

Option prices let us read what the market as a whole is bracing for over the next month: roughly −19.6% to +19.8%.

Our committee's range is −16.8% to +20.5%, middle +1.4%. Where the curves differ is exactly where our research disagrees with the crowd — hover the chart to read the chance of ending below any level, under each view.

The fundamentals, in English

Sales last quarter: $96.2B

Up 106% from the same quarter a year earlier.

Profitability

75¢ of each sales dollar survives direct costs; 66¢ reaches operating profit.

vs the street: beat the average estimate in 1 of 1 comparable quarters (through 2025-10); the latest 3 quarters report adjusted EPS on a different basis

Analysts expect $2.47 per share next quarter.

What you pay: 27.2× trailing earnings

Market value ÷ the last 12 months' earnings — the simplest valuation yardstick.

Cash generation: $134.4B of operating cash in 12 months

$55.3B of it went to buying back shares.

The numbers — 8 quarters, side by side

Quarter	Revenue	vs yr ago	Gross	Operating	EPS	Op. cash
2027-Q2	$96.2B	+106%	75.0%	66.2%	$2.46	$24.1B
2027-Q1	$81.6B	+85%	74.9%	65.6%	$2.39	$50.3B
2026-Q4	$68.1B	+73%	75.0%	65.0%	—	$36.2B
2026-Q3	$57.0B	+63%	73.4%	63.2%	$1.30	$23.8B
2026-Q2	$46.7B	+56%	72.4%	60.8%	$1.08	$15.4B
2026-Q1	$44.1B	+69%	60.5%	49.1%	$0.76	$27.4B
2025-Q4	$39.3B	+78%	73.0%	61.1%	—	$16.6B
2025-Q3	$35.1B	+94%	74.6%	62.3%	$0.78	$17.6B

A missing value renders an honest “—”, never zero. Per-share figures are as the company filed them at the time (not adjusted for later stock splits). Source: the company's own SEC filings.

Street record: 2026-07: basis differs · 2026-04: basis differs · 2026-01: basis differs · 2025-10: beat +3.6%

Positioning & protection, in English

The price of protection — vs its own past year

today · 48th percentile

cheaper than usual

more expensive than usual

Paying for a bet on a rise

$411M · 65%

Paying to protect against a fall

$220M · 35%

FIG 5 — option-market positioning · Oct 28, 2026

In options terms: 30-day implied vol 41% (rank 48/100 for the year), 8 pts above the recent-vol benchmark of 33%. Options flow on 2026-10-28: $411M in calls vs $220M in puts at 0.8x normal volume.

How positioning like this is typically read: Options flow is unremarkable today and implied vol is rich vs the recent-vol benchmark (IV rank 48/100 for the year). Nothing here demands action — the other report sections carry the story.

Earnings land in 24 days — option prices around scheduled events usually rise into the date and reset after; that is normal, not a prediction.

Public filings activity

Public officials must disclose their trades — with a lag of up to 45 days. Recent disclosures naming NVDA:

Oct 1, 2026U.S. House member — Cleo Fields · Buy, $1,001 - $15,000filed 22 days after the trade

Aug 31, 2026U.S. House member — Dan Meuser · Sell, $1,001 - $15,000filed 44 days after the trade

Aug 26, 2026executive — Donald J Trump · Buy, $15,001 - $50,000filed 27 days after the trade

Aug 24, 2026executive — Donald J Trump · Buy, $1,001 - $15,000filed 29 days after the trade

Aug 21, 2026executive — Donald J Trump · Sell, $500,001 - $1,000,000filed 32 days after the trade

Aug 18, 2026U.S. House member — Gilbert Cisneros · Sell, $1,001 - $15,000filed 24 days after the trade

Aug 17, 2026executive — Donald J Trump · Buy, $500,001 - $1,000,000filed 36 days after the trade

Aug 13, 2026U.S. Senate member — Sheldon Whitehouse · Sell, $15,001 - $50,000filed 20 days after the trade

Why we show this. These are public records anyone can read — we collect them in one place and date both the trade and the filing, so you can see the lag for yourself. Source: public congressional records.

Trading opportunities — the alpha sectionRESEARCH, NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Our engine turns the committee's expected range into concrete trade structures — each with a one-sentence thesis, the structure spelled out in plain English, and a picture of what you'd make or lose across possible prices.

No idea stands for NVDA right now. Trade ideas are regenerated after every committee review and pass strict pricing gates — most names on most days honestly have none. Fresh ideas appear here after the next nightly review.

Research, not investment advice.All returns shown are price returns — dividends excluded.AI-derived content is always violet-labeled.Report data as of Oct 28, 2026.